BREAKING: Lionel Messi and Argentina return to action TODAY as the reigning world champions face Austria in a Group J decider that could send the Albiceleste into the Round of 32. Here's everything you need on the Argentina vs Austria prediction, odds, lineups, and the Messi record chase that has the football world watching.
Match Details: Argentina vs Austria
Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026 – Group J, Matchday 2
Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
Kick-off: 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST / 12:00 PM Local (Dallas)
Venue: Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, Texas
TV/Streaming: FOX (US) / BBC One & BBC iPlayer (UK)
Argentina vs Austria Prediction: Who Wins?
Both nations opened the tournament with wins — Argentina demolished Algeria 3-0 behind a Lionel Messi hat-trick, while Austria edged Jordan 3-1 thanks to a controversial own goal and a stoppage-time penalty. That means both sides arrive at AT&T Stadium with three points, making this Group J clash a genuine decider.
The numbers heavily favor the South Americans. Opta's supercomputer gives Argentina a 65.4% win probability from 25,000 simulations, and bookmakers agree: FanDuel has Argentina at -185 on the moneyline, with Austria out at +550 and the draw at +310. The over/under sits at 2.5 goals, and given both teams scored three goals each in their openers, the "Over" looks like the smart side of that bet.
JUST IN — Prediction: Argentina to win and Over 2.5 goals. Expect Messi to be at the center of it all again.
Lionel Messi's World Cup Record Chase
This is bigger than three points. Messi's hat-trick against Algeria pulled him level with Germany's Miroslav Klose on 16 World Cup goals — the all-time record. One more goal against Austria, and the Inter Miami captain stands alone atop football's most prestigious goal-scoring chart.
There's a second record in play too. A goal here would make Messi only the third player in World Cup history to score in six consecutive matches, joining France's Just Fontaine (1958) and Brazil's Jairzinho (1970) — and his streak dates all the way back to Argentina's title-winning run in Qatar. Not bad for a 38-year-old two days before his 39th birthday.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Argentina (4-3-3)
Lionel Scaloni is expected to make minimal changes after the Algeria rout. Nahuel Molina could replace the injured Gonzalo Montiel at right-back, but otherwise the spine stays the same.
Predicted XI: E. Martínez; Molina, Romero, L. Martínez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Mac Allister (c), E. Fernández; Messi, Lautaro Martínez, J. Álvarez
Austria (4-2-3-1)
Ralf Rangnick faces fitness concerns over David Alaba, Stefan Posch (playing through a fractured jaw with a custom mask), and Alessandro Schöpf, all training separately. Marcel Sabitzer is set to earn his 100th international cap.
Predicted XI: A. Schlager; Posch, Lienhart, Danso, Mwene; Seiwald, X. Schlager; Wimmer, Sabitzer (c), Schmid; Arnautovic
Key Stats & Trends to Know
Argentina have won 8 of their last 8 internationals and conceded just one goal in their last eight World Cup matches against European opposition.
Austria are unbeaten in their last 18 matches outside this World Cup run, losing just twice.
Austria are bidding for their first back-to-back World Cup start since 1982, and their first finals appearance since 1998.
Since 1982, Austria have won just once in 10 matches against South American opposition.
Argentina and Austria have met three times previously (1-1-1), most recently a 1-1 draw back in 1990.
Seven of Austria's last ten World Cup goals have come from set-pieces — a danger Argentina must defend closely.
What's at Stake
A win for either side all but guarantees a spot in the Round of 32 with a game still to play. For Argentina, first place in Group J would mean a Round of 32 clash with the runner-up of Group H (Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, or Cape Verde). For Austria, victory would be their best World Cup result in over four decades and a statement that "Das Team" belongs on the big stage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Argentina vs Austria today?
Kick-off is at 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST on Monday, June 22, 2026, at Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium) in Arlington, Texas.
What channel is Argentina vs Austria on?
The match airs on FOX in the United States and on BBC One / BBC iPlayer in the UK.
Is Lionel Messi playing today?
Yes. Messi is expected to start and lead the Argentina attack as he chases the all-time World Cup scoring record.
What is the prediction for Argentina vs Austria?
Most experts and the Opta supercomputer favor an Argentina win, with several pundits also backing Over 2.5 total goals given both teams' attacking starts to the tournament.
Has Argentina ever lost to Austria?
No. The two nations have met three times: a 5-1 Argentina win in 1980, and a 1-1 draw in 1990 (their third meeting also ended level).
Can Austria still qualify for the Round of 16 if they lose?
Yes, a narrow loss combined with results elsewhere could still leave Austria in contention heading into Matchday 3 against Algeria, but a win or draw would put their qualification beyond doubt.